Image copyright Getty Images Victories for Donald Trump and Brexit have confounded the pollsters again, after most got the 2015 general election wrong. But were they to blame?
In the aftermath of the 2015 general election opinion poll debacle, I spoke to an old friend in the business. He said that normally, after such a bad experience, you have to wait five years until the next general election to discover whether the changes you have put in place really work.
However, the promised EU referendum meant he and his fellow pollsters would be tested much sooner.
It is important to remember the scale of the 2015 polling failure because it set the scene for the events of 2016. In the face of a seven-point Conservative lead among voters on 7 May 2015, 18% of campaign polls had suggested a dead heat and a further had 46% suggested Labour leads.
Of the 36% of polls that registered Conservative leads during the six-week election campaign, three-quarters published leads that were less than half ..
Read More
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق